The Way This Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Formula.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still