The Astonishing Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid

Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing United.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.