Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
