Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance and Settled Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
